PhD research project · International & Australian domestic applicants

Next-generation causal AI for personalised medicine.

Moving beyond correlation to estimate how treatment choices may change outcomes for individual patients — combining causal inference, counterfactual reasoning and foundation AI models.

SRTSR0330 project code AI · Causal Inference · Medicine
Conceptual causal graph
Patientcharacteristics TreatmentA TreatmentB Potentialoutcome Counterfactualworld
Core questionWhat would have happened if a different treatment had been given?
01Association
vs causation
02Individual
treatment effects
03Foundation AI
for small-data settings
04Counterfactual
decision support
01 · Why this research

Prediction tells us what tends to happen. Causality asks what could change.

Many clinical AI systems learn useful associations from historical data. Yet a treatment decision is an intervention: the research challenge is to estimate the effect of choosing one option instead of another for a particular patient, under uncertainty and real-world data constraints.

A

Association-based prediction

Finds patterns between patient characteristics, treatments and outcomes.

  • Strong predictive signal can still be non-causal
  • Historical prescribing patterns can encode confounding
  • Optimised primarily for prediction
02 · Proposed research framework

A bridge between foundation models and causal inference.

The research investigates whether pretrained representations can make causal modelling more practical when biomedical datasets are limited, heterogeneous or noisy — without treating a foundation model as a substitute for causal assumptions.

01Patient dataClinical features, history, treatment context
02RepresentationFoundation model features
03Causal modelInterventions & treatment effects
04CounterfactualsPotential outcomes under alternatives
05RecommendationPersonalised decision support

Individual treatment effects

Estimate the contrast between alternative treatment outcomes for a specific patient profile.

Data-efficient learning

Investigate how pretrained representations can help under constrained sample sizes.

Uncertainty & robustness

Test how recommendations behave under confounding, missingness and population shift.

03 · Counterfactual laboratory

Run a synthetic treatment-effect experiment.

This interactive laboratory uses a small synthetic dataset created for demonstration. The values are not clinical recommendations and are not derived from real patients.

Synthetic demo · educational/research prototype only.

Synthetic treatment-effect estimateDEMO DATA
+0.0
estimated outcome difference (B − A)
Treatment A
0.0
Treatment B
0.0
Select a profile and run the experiment.
0 synthetic recordsAge · risk score · treatment · outcomeGenerated for research demonstration
04 · Research questions
RQ01

Can foundation representations improve personalised treatment-effect estimation?

RQ02

How can causal structure be preserved when integrating modern foundation AI?

RQ03

How robust are counterfactual estimates with limited observational data?

RQ04

How should recommendation systems be evaluated beyond prediction accuracy?

RQ05

How can uncertainty and limitations be communicated to decision-makers?

05 · Live AI demonstration
OpenRouter-powered research prototype

Ask the Causal Medicine Copilot.

Ask about the research problem, causal inference, counterfactual reasoning, foundation models or how the proposed system could be evaluated.

Research / education only
Not for clinical diagnosis or treatment.
Causal Medicine Research CopilotChecking AI service…
CM
Research Copilot

Hello. I can explain the SRTSR0330 research concept, walk through causal inference and counterfactual reasoning, or discuss the synthetic demonstration dataset.

06 · Research roadmap
01
Literature & problem formulation

Map causal recommendation, treatment-effect estimation and foundation-model literature.

02
Baselines & data preparation

Build reproducible prediction and causal baselines across representative biomedical settings.

03
Foundation AI integration

Evaluate representations, adaptation strategies and data efficiency.

04
Counterfactual recommendation

Develop and test methods for personalised treatment-effect reasoning.

05
Robustness & evaluation

Stress-test confounding, missing data, subgroup shifts and uncertainty.

06
Decision-support prototype

Translate model outputs into interpretable research demonstrations.

07 · Supervision

Research leadership at the University of Adelaide.

Connect the research concept with the project supervisors and explore their official university profiles.

SRTSR0330

What if the recommendation engine could reason about the treatment you did not choose?

Run the AI demo ↗